Miami vs. Florida match-up breakdown and prediction (2024)

Quarterback transfer Cam Ward leads the way for a Miami passing attack that hopes to be more explosive and efficient in 2024. Ward arrives from Washington State, where he threw for 3,736 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions while rushing for eight touchdowns. Ward threw for at least 300 yards in five games against Power Five opponents.

Ward has a bevy of talented pass catchers to feed the ball to with UM returning Xavier Restrepo (1,092 yards, 6 touchdowns), Jacolby George (864 yards, 8 touchdowns), and Isaiah Horton (168 yards, 1 touchdown) at receiver with athletic tight end Elijah Arroyo returning from a serious injury that was sustained in 2022. The Hurricanes have also added Sam Brown from Houston via the portal after he totaled 815 yards and three touchdowns.

Miami is the first team to return three receivers who generated at least 800 yards since Houston in 2010.

From a pass protection standpoint, Miami returns both of their tackles year-over-year with Jalen Rivers handling the left tackle spot and Francis Mauigoa returning at right tackle after a Freshman All-American showing. Anez Cooper also returns at right guard and is expected to be one of the better interior offensive linemen in the ACC in 2024.

UM will feature a new center with experienced Indiana transfer Zach Carpenter arriving and at left guard Matthew McCoy projects as the starter in 2024 as a third-year player who is poised to make the leap to a bigger role.

Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson runs a passing attack that is built on 'Air-Raid' principles. The key is to get the ball out quick, find the open man, and take the deep shots when they are set up and there for the taking. Ward is excellent at getting the ball out quick and he has the potential to improvise as well because of his pocket presence.

Florida had one of the worst Power Five pass defenses in the country in 2023, but that was last year. The talent is there for the Gators to be much improved year-over-year with UF featuring two talented corners in Jason Marshall and Devin Moore while adding a veteran safety in Asa Turner and returning sophom*ore Jordan Castell, who was a Freshman All-American in 2023. The nickel corner spot is solid as well with Sharif Denson leading the way there. UF picked off only three passes in 2023. Can this group make more plays in 2024? It will be interesting to monitor.

UF's pass rush was not overly potent in 2023 and this year the Gators will look for somebody to step up in that role. Justus Boone and T.J. Searcy are expected to be the bookend pass rushers for the Gators this year and if they can provide some juice off the edge, it will go a long way toward Florida improving in 2024.

The Gators made coaching changes to get more out of their position groups with Gerald Chatman arriving from Tulane to coach the defensive line and Will Harris arriving from the NFL to coach the secondary.

Edge: Miami. UF's secondary will be much better and more organized, which will allow for the talent to show in 2024, but do the Gators have a consistent pass rush off the edge to pressure quarterbacks? Miami's offensive line has the edge in pass protection.

The Hurricanes have added Damien Martinez from Oregon State in the transfer portal after he ran for 1,185 yards and nine touchdowns. At 6-feet and 230 pounds, Martinez is a power back who is tough to bring down and once he gets to the second level, he has enough speed to generate explosive production. Miami has not featured a 1,000 yard running back since Mark Walton in 2016. Martinez has the potential to hit that mark in 2024.

From a depth perspective, UM will have sophom*ore Mike Fletcher available after recovering this offseason from a foot injury that was sustained in the Pinstripe Bowl. Fletcher is a big-bodied running back at 6-feet-2 and 225 pounds, who ran for 514 yards and five touchdowns. How much will Fletcher be available? It will be interesting to monitor. The Hurricanes also return Ajay Allen as a change of pace back who totaled 361 yards and five touchdowns along with impressive true freshman Jordan Lyle. Chris Johnson can also be a gadget player and true freshman tight end Elija Lofton can serve as a power running back at times.

From a run blocking perspective, Miami features a a big, physical offensive line that averages about 330 pounds across the board. The group plays with physicality and has athleticism to get to the second level.

The Gators allowed 155 rushing yards per game, which ranked 12th best in the ACC in 2023.

While those results are poor, Florida does have the personnel to be much improved on run defense year-over-year. UF has massive body types up front with defensive tackles Desmond Watson, Cam Jackson, and Caleb Banks all going at least 6-feet-5 and 325 pounds. At linebacker, Shemar James returns as an athletic sideline-to-sideline player while Pup Howard transfers in from South Carolina to provide more consistent run defense.

Executive head coach and co-defensive coordinator Ron Roberts arrives from Auburn and is expected to be the play-caller on defense in 2024. Roberts is expected to install a defense that switches in and out of multiple fronts and he will look to keep the defense better connected and more organized.

Edge: Miami. Florida's personnel on defense is built to stop the run. They didn't do that in 2023, but should be better organized and improved in that phase. Adding Martinez over the summer gives Miami the edge here, along with two road graders on the right side in Francis Mauigoa and Anez Cooper.

Florida's passing attack is led by quarterback Graham Mertz, who returns after throwing for 2,903 yards and 20 touchdowns against three interceptions while completing 72.9 percent of his attempts. The average depth of target for Mertz on the year was 6.3 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Mertz lost his top pass catcher from 2023 with Pearsall moving on to the NFL level, but the Gators return dynamic slot receiver Trey Wilson taking on a bigger role after totaling 538 yards and six touchdowns as a true freshman. UF also added a couple of transfers who should bring some juice to the outside in Wisconsin transfer Chimere Dike (689 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns in 2022) and Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger, who totaled 713 yards and three touchdowns in 2023.

UF's pass protection is an area to watch with the Gators featuring new starters in three different spots: left guard Knijeah Harris, right guard Damieon George, and right tackle Kam Waites. Florida's pass protection was a weakness in 2023.

UM's defense is interesting in this phase. The pass rush should be a strength as it features proven players like Rueben Bain, Akheem Mesidor, Tyler Baron, and Elijah Alston, but there are some questions that need to be answered in the secondary.

Bain, Mesidor, Baron, and Alston have the talent, body types, and versatility to line up together on the field at the same time during obvious passing situations.

Miami will have a new-look group on the back end as Kam Kinchens and James Williams move on to the NFL level at safety, along with starting corners Jaden Davis and Te'Cory Couch pursuing their careers at the next level as well.

The Hurricanes will feature experienced safety transfer Meesh Powell, who arrives from Washington along with inexperienced third-year safety Jaden Harris on the back end. At cornerback, UM returns steady contributor Daryl Porter along with talented second-year cornerback Damari Brown, who projects as a nickel. Jadais Richard and O.J. Frederique have been battling it out all camp for a starting outside cornerback spot.

Defensive coordinator Lance Guidry is known for his aggressive style and he will call exotic blitzes to generate pressure.

Edge: Even. Miami has the advantage on the line of scrimmage, but the Hurricanes enter the game with a secondary that needs to prove itself. Mertz doesn't lead an explosive passing attack, but he is ultra efficient and the Gators do feature talented pass catchers.

The Gators will have Montrell Johnson available and if he is indeed a full go, it will be big for an offense because he has run for at least 800 yards each of the last three seasons. If Johnson is limited, the Gators will have to turn to largely unproven players like Treyaun Webb and freshman Jadan Baugh.

The run blocking was solid in 2023 and the Gators will feature big, strong bodies up front and they will look to lean on an athletic UM front. The right side of Florida's offensive line features Damieon George at 6-feet-6 and 345 pounds at right guard and Kam Waites as the right tackle at 6-feet-8 and 343 pounds.

Miami's run defense finished the 2023 season ranked No. 11 in the country and the Hurricanes are a more talented bunch year-over-year.

Kiko Mauigoa returns at middle linebacker after posting 82 tackles and 18 tackles for loss for the Hurricanes in 2023. Wesley Bissainthe returns as the weak-side linebacker starter after generating 44 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, and two interceptions. Up front, the Hurricanes have a veteran bunch at defensive tackle that includes Simeon Barrow and C.J. Clark, along with a proven group of defensive ends to set the edge.

UM made a significant leap in run defense in 2023 and it should be a strength again in 2024.

Edge: Miami. The questionable status of UF running back Montrell Johnson gives Miami a big edge here. If Johnson is limited or cannot play, the Gators will be turning to largely unproven backs.

Andy Borregales converted 22-of-26 field goal attempts in 2023 and is viewed as one of the top kickers in the ACC. Dylan Joyce was solid in his first season punting at the college level, averaging 43.8 yards per attempt. In the return phases, Miami will feature speedy running back Chris Johnson, twitchy slot receiver Ray Ray Joseph, and steady veteran Xavier Restrepo.

Trey Smack returns as UF's kicker after converting 17-of-21 field goal attempts while Jeremy Crawshaw averaged an impressive 48.9 yards per attempt as a punter. On the return side of things, Trey Wilson represents a dynamic option in the punt return phase while the kick returners could be represented by a UF running back or wide receiver Elijhah Badger.

Edge: Even. Which one of these teams will have a clean performance on special teams in week one of the season? The answer to that question will play a part in who is better positioned to win the game. Both teams had their special teams issues in 2023. Florida and Miami feature talented specialists and the return options on both sides of the ball are also

Florida head coach Billy Napier vs. Miami defensive coordinator Lance Guidry

Guidry is one of the most aggressive defensive coordinators in the country who is comfortable with a near 50 percent blitz rate during the course of a game.

What plan will Napier have for Miami's blitz packages? Will Guidry's blitzes force UF quarterback Graham Mertz to get the ball out quick? How will Napier set up some deep shots down the field to test the Hurricanes' secondary.

Napier largely calls an efficient—and some times methodical—approach on offense while Guidry is the exact opposite of that on defense.

Which approach prevails on Saturday? It will be an interesting battle to watch.

The formula for winning a road game in week one is simple: run the ball effectively. Martinez arrives as a transfer from Oregon State after running for 1,185 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023. Running the ball effectively is easier said than done against SEC defenses. Miami has not featured a 100-yard rusher in its last five games against SEC opponents. The last time the Hurricanes featured a 100-yard runner was Duke Johnson's 132 yard performance in an Independence Bowl loss. Miami can also win the game with a strong performance by Cam Ward in the passing game, but Martinez having a big day provides a safer route to earning a victory on the road in game one.

Here are the InsideTheU staff predictions for the game...

CHRISTOPHER STOCK:Florida 31, Miami 24

"Both head coaches certainly still have a lot to prove as Mario Cristobal (12-13) and Billy Napier (11-14) enter their third seasons with each having arguably the worst two-year starts at their schools since the 70s. A rivalry game victory is there for the taking as both teams have weaknesses that could arise in the opener and with it being a road game for the Hurricanes, who went 2-4 away from home last season, the Gators should have the edge.

"There is a lot more pressure on the Hurricanes to win the game as the ranked team, the betting favorite and a program that has garnered a lot of attention in the offseason, buthome underdogs, especially in rivalry games and season openers, are more than capable of being the better team in a single game and Cristobal's Hurricanes have failed to live up to expectations in the past so it should not be a surprise if it happens again.

"There are definitely reasons to be excited about Cam Ward and the Miami offense for the season, but expecting it to all come together and be rolling in a tough environment in game one is hard to predict. However, if Ward does fire on all cylinders out of the gate and makes enough big plays, the Hurricanes could walk out of Gainesville with a victory even with question marks with their two new offensive linemen and a vulnerable secondary against a team that has averaged 31 points over its last seven games."

DAVID LAKE: Miami 27, Florida 20

"This is going to be a competitive game, but I think the Hurricanes will be the better team on the line of scrimmage and will have the better run game on the day. Navigating the atmosphere of 'The Swamp' will be difficult in the first half of the game—and Florida might even be the team that starts the game fast—but the Hurricanes take control in the second half.

GABY URRUTIA: Miami 27, Florida 20

"My confidence in Miami comes more from who I believe them to be. I trust that the Hurricanes are built on the line of scrimmage to win on both sides of the ball. I think the Hurricanes have the playmakers on offense to find enough success to make things difficult on a Florida defense I believe will be much improved. I think the continuity on both sides of the ball matters and despite some questions on the backend of the defense, having Lance Guidry back and knowing what he's done in the past gives me confidence that the secondary will be up to the task.

"I think it will be a grind in Gainesville, but I have the Hurricanes winning by a score."

LUKE CHANEY:Miami 20, Florida 16

"On paper, the Hurricanes seem to have the talent advantage over their in-state rival, especially in the trenches, where Florida has question marks across its offensive line. I expect the Gators' continuity at key positions on offense, along with their talented secondary, to keep this game close, but I trust Miami's ability to run the ball in what I think will be a lower-scoring game than many are predicting."